Yale University’s Professor Fair devised an algorithmic system to predict political and economic trends, including the victor of the upcoming Presidential Election. Fair’s system indicates that President Obama will win the 2012 Election in a landslide, as long as the economy continues to improve steadily over the next two years. Fair suggests a strong correlation between the state of the economy and electoral chances of incumbent candidates. This system, however, cannot account for unexpected events such as recessions, national or international crises, and war. Although the economy is a crucial consideration in elections, voters examine other key issues as well. The assertion that the state of the economy determines an incumbent’s success seems too simple. We live in a complex political climate that features a plethora of relevant issues, many of which manifest unexpectedly.
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Yale University’s Professor Fair devised an algorithmic system to predict political and economic trends, including the victor of the upcoming Presidential Election. Fair’s system indicates that President Obama will win the 2012 Election in a landslide, as long as the economy continues to improve steadily over the next two years. Fair suggests a strong correlation between the state of the economy and electoral chances of incumbent candidates. This system, however, cannot account for unexpected events such as recessions, national or international crises, and war. Although the economy is a crucial consideration in elections, voters examine other key issues as well. The assertion that the state of the economy determines an incumbent’s success seems too simple. We live in a complex political climate that features a plethora of relevant issues, many of which manifest unexpectedly.
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