Monday, October 18, 2010
Black Vote May Have Strong Impact on Maryland Gov. Race
I just thought this was an interesting follow up on the earlier comment regarding the importance of the Black vote in the election. Clearly O'Malley is trying to appeal to minorities but it will be interesting to see if it pays off or if Rev. Heber Brown is right in saying O'Malley will have to earn the vote through action and his support of the community.
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I am from Maryland so this article was particularly interesting to me. The point about the importance of the African-American vote in the Maryland Governor's election is very interesting. I think because Martin O'Malley was mayor of Baltimore, a city that is predominately African-American, and given the strong tendency for African-American voters to vote Democratic that Martin O'Malley is pretty much guaranteed the black vote. The question is will black voters turnout for this Governor's election? The Washington D.C. suburbs and Baltimore city and its surrounding suburbs are usually the areas with the highest voter turnout in most Maryland elections. These areas also are heavily Democratic districts that will probably give their vote to O'Malley. Given that Martin O'Malley is up by a sizable margin in most recent polls I think it is safe to say that O'Malley will be re-elected.
However I think turnout, particularly rural white Democrats and black voter turnout will be very low. I believe this because race is not as important a topic this election cycle as it was in 2008. I believe the high African-American voter turnout, particularly in the South, was a reflection of the hype surrounding the first viable candidacy of an African-American candidate. I think that this low turnout trend will be seen across the country which does not bode well for many Southern and rural Democrats. Though Maryland will remain a solidly blue state, I think many of the Southern seats won by Democrats in 2006 and 2008, as well as rural seats in the Midwest and West will be most at danger. Low voter turnout will be the primary factor in a Democratic defeat at the hands of a highly mobilized and energized Republican and conservative movement.
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