Even If House Is Lost, Obama Finds Hope In History

Most of people predict the Republican Party is going to win the mid-term election. However, even so, President Obama still has hope to win reelection. NPR compiled the information of the three former U.S. presidents who lost the majority at least one house of the congress in mid-term election but still won reelection. They are Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower, and Bill Clinton.

Bill Clinton thought about strategies to cooperate with the Republican Party right after Democratic Party's lost. Therefore, I think it is important for President Obama to think what the step should be. No matter his party wins or loses, mid-term election is not a decisive factor for reelection. It is also important to study the people's concerns about Democratic Party, and the aspects attacked by the Republican Party during this mid-term election, because President Obama should eliminate as many these impediments as possible for his reelection.

The Election Will Be Tweeted (and Retweeted)

Obama's Appearance on the Daily Show

I have to disagree with Will's interpretation of Obama's appearance on the Daily Show.

Obama’s appearance on the daily show isn’t a testament to his ability to rally voters or his ability to mobilize the youth vote, but only a desperate attempt to in the last few days before the election to present himself (and his party) in the best light. The mere fact that he would go onto a comedic show to try to justify himself shows desperation.

In a manner similar to “the boy who cried wolf,” the over exposed president is losing his voice in traditional means and is forced to turn to things like Comedy Central in order to be heard.

Now granted, the show’s viewers would be a good target for Obama’s self-promotion, but making an appearance on the show when they are only looking for a good laugh is not the way to make them take him seriously. Trying to make a serious point on a show that is all about political satire is a tough thing to do, which is why it was such a red flag that the President is in trouble. He sees this and is trying to pull out all the stops, which to me, seems more feeble than inspiring.

Maybe to some of his faithful followers this event seems bold, daring and well-thought-out. But for many, it only shows that Obama is waking up to the fact that you can’t always win by saying, “Yes we can.”

Divided We Fail?

This is a very angst-ridden article about the upcoming election. It ends by saying that if elections go as expected, and there is a Republican majority we should all; “Be afraid. Be very afraid.” Paul Krugman describes that dissimilar from the circumstances in the late 1990’s, the current state of economy makes bipartisan efforts in government even harder. And that with Republicans control, the much-needed policy to dig us out of our “economic trap” won’t be possible. Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell states that, “The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president.” It seems that our system of “checks and balances” has come to an unfortunate extreme in recent times. The initial goal of preventing one overarching power between the three branches has been distorted by Republican and Democratic power. If Republicans come to win both the House and the Senate, people, like Paul Krugman, predict that the division among the Democratic and Republican parties will prevent a unified governmental body from working towards what is in the best interest of our country. I sincerely hope that Mr. Krugman’s predictions do not become reality in the days to come.

Bill Clinton Tried to Get Meek to Drop Out

Recently, Bill Clinton attempted to persuade Kendrick Meek, the Florida Democratic candidate for Senate to drop out of the race. Currently, the election is a three-man race between Meek, Independent Charlie Crist, and Republican Marco Rubio (Tea-Party extremist). Rubio is leading both of his opponents, so Clinton felt that if he could convince Meek to drop out, Democrats would unite behind Charlie Crist, the stronger candidate. The Democrats need to do whatever possible to retain seats because of the unfavorable political climate. It seems to be selfish of Meek to remain in the election, despite the advice of Bill Clinton. Clinton has the parties best interests at heart, and realizes the importance of sacrifice to help the Democratic Party in this election. Obviously, it is difficult for a candidate to hear these words, and he may see it as unfair to have to drop out. As a result, however, it is likely that Crist and Meek will block each other, allowing for Rubio to win and costing the democrats one more seat in 2010.

Newt Gingrich thinking about running for the White House.

The pool of Republican challengers planning to run in the 2012 election includes many big names like Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Jeb Bush and Donald Trump. With real leader do all these options hurt potential candidates chances to start gathering support. It will be interesting to see how the results from the 2010 midterm elections will effect the pool and if we will start to see a few lead candidates start to emerge.

Democrats Retain Edge in Campaign Spending

Even though there was a large fund supporting Republican candidates, the Democratic Party outspent the Republican Party in this mid-term election. However, the Democratic Party is still in a worrying shape.

I think it very interesting because voters are not guided by commercials and slogans as much, instead, they became more realistic. Therefore, there is a split between campaign strategy in terms of fundraising and voters' attitude. I think, in this way, the influence brought by the spending on campaign is restricted to the political circle - people who understand politics and care about politics. The scope of fundraising influence is narrower.

President Obama Appears on The Daily Show

Tonight Jon Stewart, of The Daily Show renown, hosted President Barack Obama for the entirety of his show. Though the show had its moments of humor, I was struck by the conversation's professional and serious tone. Jon Stewart asked very serious questions about the President's shortcomings and his inability to quell the intense partisanship in Congress. I was most impressed with Obama's defense of Obamacare which he reiterated has insured millions of previously uninsured lower income Americans . He noted that because universal health care legislation has been passed it can be revised in the future without having to go through as major a legislative battle. Jon Stewart was an excellent host who professionally balanced his job as a comedian with serious political discussion that would have rivaled any "respected" news media.

The fact that the President of the United States would appear on The Daily Show so close to the midterm election to plug for the Democratic Party and defend his administration's first two years indicates that the Democratic Party is trying to mobilize the youth vote again. The Daily Show is primarily viewed by a younger audience who tends to lean Democratic. Obama is trying to reinvigorate the youth base that supported him in the 2008 election. With many Democratic seats in jeopardy this election season, the Democratic Party needs a large voter turnout to keep many at-risk candidates viable.

The President's Daily Show appearance also highlights politician's increased use of new social mediums to reach voters. A successful campaign must approach voters through older mediums such as print media and traditional news television programs and new social mediums like the internet news sources, late-night satirical television shows, and social networks. Obama was the first presidential candidate to utilize the internet and social networks to raise unprecedented amounts in fundraising and involve supporters. Obama's appearance tonight is indicative of the power of new social media in today's politics and the Democratic push to reinvigorate voters for the 2010 midterm elections.

Votes allowed to wear WWE tee shirts on Electoin Day in CT

Although she may be down in the polls Linda McMahon supports can now wear WWE apparel on election day.

Campaigning on Facebook

Texas Is Campaign Issue in California Ads

Should California create jobs at an expense of environment?

California Proposition 32 will be on ballot on November 2. Under current economic environment, lowering unemployment rate has become the top priority. California's current unemployment rate is more than 12%, and Proposition 32 aims at loosening environmental regulation on jobs in order to create more jobs. Hitting the two key words - environment and jobs, Taxes has become both a role model and the enemy, suggested by the New York Times.

I do not think we should pass Proposition 32 for the following reasons. First, we will lose our position when accusing other countries of not being sustainable. The pass of Proposition 32 might become an evidence showing that the U.S. lets go the environmental issue for its economic growth. This does not match the global image we are trying to build. Second, Most oil related jobs belong to the secondary sector of the economy, that is, jobs processing raw materials. However, currently, the largest economic sector of the U.S. is the tertiary sector, that is, the service sector. Therefore, if we create more oil-related jobs, we are developing backward.

Key Tax Breaks at Risk as Panel Looks at Cuts

Bruce Banner v. the Incredible Hulk

In Colorado, Voters Voice Uncertainty and Anger

There are feelings remained in deep freeze.

As always, the Republican Party and Democratic Party are claiming their ideologies, trying to show that their solutions are more superior than their opponent. However, voters in Colorado are immune to their this kind of propaganda, they care more about real life issues, such as their stores, schools, their husbands' jobs. Perhaps, many of them lost confidence and feel lost during this huge political samsara of parties.

Some of the voters show that they are not sure whom to vote for, some say that either of the parties' policies fits their status quo, for example, a small business owner says "I'm not the small business they talk about, I'm the small, small business".

I think we might have left a vacuum in people's real needs when we are busy comparing the two parties' totally different ideologies. We have not paid enough attention to the middle grounds. There are people left lonely, lost, disappointed. I think it is time that we should consider a third situation in which the Republican and the Democratic ideologies form a coalition, because we cannot live in absolute.

The Middle Is About to Become Much Lonelier

Interesting article predicting shifts on both sides away from the center.

In Massachusetts Race, Ideology Isn't Only Issue

Jeff Perry has the best chance of any Republicans running in Massachusetts to edge out the Democrats. Living in Massachusetts myself, it is interesting to observe the way that Republicans are trying to inch their way into the national legislature in a state that is traditionally always Democratic. Scott Brown's victory last year gave all Republicans in this election some hope that they too could be elected in such a liberal place. However, Perry has another issue to worry about: there was an illegal strip search incident in 1991 when he was a police sergeant that his opponent, William R. Keating, has brought to the attention of residents in their district. Even so, his past record with votes in the state legislature have local Republicans hoping that he can still defeat Keating in 8 days. Though Perry is fighting for a seat that has been ruled by Democrats for 30 years, he is receiving lots of aid from the National Republican Congressional Committee, the American Action Network, and even the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. The hundreds of thousands of dollars invested in this race for the Republicans could in fact give them the advantage in this Massachusetts election.

New Rule: Christine O'Donell Has to Stop Saying "I'm You" in her Campaign Ads

However you may feel about Bill Maher, this article is really funny!

For college students, it's so not '08

The article emphasizes a key point to the 2010 election research paper about the surge and decline theory. During this election the thrill of electing the first black President with fresh and youthful ideas of change and hope have faded for the vast amount of the electorate. If it has faded for the general populace then the youth vote will surely decline as they are usually a pathetically small percentage of those that vote in each election. While Hamilton appears to me to be fairly active in its recruitment efforts to vote (the college Dems and Republicans have registered a couple hundred new voters) I expect that this is but a fraction that both clubs were able to recruit during the 2008 elections a few years ago. Nonetheless, the youth vote that the President gained a huge boost from in 2008 may end up tipping the scale against his party in the election coming up in a mere 8 days from today.

The "Mistakes" of war

More often then not the number of soldier causalities (both US and Iraqi) causes us to overlook civilian deaths. Death and violence is a product of Iraqis fighting both an external war against the US forces as well as a civil war between the Sunni and Shiite. The numbers of civilian casualties in Iraq sheds light on the degree to which we have actually “revolutionized” warfare. The fact that in 2005 “an average of 3.5 civilians were killed each week,” demonstrates that we can no longer can’t stand behind the notion that technology has allowed for the unwarranted killing of civilians to be a thing of the past. Even with technology that allows for a level of containment in war and precision in attacking the enemy, it appears as if nobody in Iraq is free from the dangers of “mistakes” in war.

Coming Face To Face With The President

President Obama hosted another "backyard conversation" in Seattle on Thursday. It was about how his economic policies effect mothers, wives, and female business owners (NPR).

President Obama's answers stroke a cord in their hearts; however, this was only influential within that small community. In a majority part of this country, people are expecting a misfortune for the Democratic Party.

I think it very interesting because there is a difference between a speech with thousands of audience and a conversation in a small community. People like to have conversations with their leaders, just as a wounded veteran's son appreciated a presidential hug. However, compared to small conversations, formal speeches at institutions are very well formatted and most of them are highly identical. Sometimes, we are tired of conventions, we are too familiar with political tones, and we are less skeptical when our leaders are more approachable. Therefore, I suppose, there might be a big difference if, in this mid-term election, President Obama hosts multiple small conventions, talking about local issues with small communities. Also, he could try different ways to allow more audience to interact with him. For example, to appear on a broadcast, to answer questions online during a fixed time slot each week, and so on. This strategy will make the president's policies less abstract to the voters and make the voters understand that everything takes time but everything is in process. Most importantly, this strategy will make President Obama someone beyond a political figure, it will make him a comrade fighting for a better future with all Americans side by side.

Microtargeting in 2010

The Code of a Man

Lecture about reclaiming manliness by Professor Waller Newell of Carleton University at 7:30PM on Sunday, October 31. If your parents are still in town, bring them with you.

Election Night at the AHI

Watch the returns in the Situation Room of the Alexander Hamilton Institute, 21 West Park Row in the Village of Clinton. Lots of good food and lively conversation.

Rides available at KJ Circle at 7:15PM on November 2.

The making of a viral video

Facing unemployment, law student demands his money back

From Obama, the Tax Cut Nobody Heard Of

According to New York Times, there has been a tax cut on Americans' income taxes since President Obama took office, a result of his stimulus package. However, very few people have noticed this.


As reported, there are several reasons why people did not notice this ta cut: 1) their starting salary lowered; 2) they pay more for their health insurance; and 3) their state taxes rise.

I think these reasons are interesting, because it seems that different policies have transferred wealth but no wealth is really transferred to the need. First, employers lowered their labor cost by lowering salary, so money goes to employers. Second, health insurance costs more; therefore, more income goes to insurance market instead of being saved in banks accounts. Third, states raise tax so that state governments collect more money. These steps might have good intentions, but it is not clear to the public. Most people do not know where their money go. They do not know how employees dispose of the money saved by lowering their salaries, they do not know how insurance companies use their increased revenue, they do not know what their money is used for by state governments.

Which Republican Party will emerge this November?

There are many different groups within the Republican Party. There are the Libertarians (fiscal conservatives), the social conservatives, and the 'big government' conservatives such as George W. Bush. With all the discusses of a Conservative resurgence this November, we are not sure exactly which group will gain the most power within the party. The other question is if one group, such as the Tea Partiers take control of the party, how will the voters be effected? Are the majority of conservatives looking for change economically or socially? We will see next month.

What Obama Has Done.

Whether these actions on this list are true, embellished, or have no basis in fact, this is a prime example of the use of social networking sites to garner support for a political idea. This page had 10,933 people who "liked" it and it is gaining members so rapidly that when I refreshed it 5 minutes later it had 10, 936 "likes." Although a relatively small number of people in America, and even on Facebook, have seen this page it is still reaching a large audience. Facebook has allowed someone who felt strongly enough about supporting Obama to create this page which may result in the formation of large group support, just his campaign generated during the 2008 election. This type of support is exactly what democrats need in the midterm elections.

Wife Beating OK?

An interesting look at the differences between ethics in America and ethics in the UAE.

O'Donnell questions separation of church, state

The rent is too damn high!

Losing it: Politics goes nuts

American politics, which has been hovering on the edge all year, has finally gone flying off it.

A spate of recent episodes—including a couple of bizarre incidents over the weekend—show all manner of candidates on the 2010 stage abandoning self-control and embracing a campaign-trail equivalent of road rage.

Who is hiding behind pseudonym?

Black Vote May Have Strong Impact on Maryland Gov. Race

I just thought this was an interesting follow up on the earlier comment regarding the importance of the Black vote in the election. Clearly O'Malley is trying to appeal to minorities but it will be interesting to see if it pays off or if Rev. Heber Brown is right in saying O'Malley will have to earn the vote through action and his support of the community.

In Massachusetts, Obama Stumps

Black Turnout Will Be Crucial for Democrats

As we have discussed in class, this article is concerned with the turnout of black voters, especially in the South. The main challenge for most Democrats right now is that they must gain the same support that President Obama did in 2008. The surge of minority voters in 2008 must stay consistent in this election for the House to have a Democratic majority. This struggle could mean trouble as there is a trend where the number of voters tend to decline in midterm elections. Another major issue is that some African-Americans are disillusioned with their current representatives since he or she disagreed with Obama on significant initiatives. With their unemployment rate double that of whites, lots of African Americans have been hit hard by the economy and are beginning to question the lack of change that they had been promised.

"Is That All You've Got?": That "Liberal Media" & Money, Again

Obama's "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" Debacle

Some Concerns on California Marijuana Laws

California Proposition 19 will be on ballot on November 2. If the proposition pass, there will be a shift in popular culture in California, as New York Times put it.

Supporters of Proposition 19 argue that it will increase government tax revenue, lower the criminal rate, and so on.

However, I am concerned if Proposition 19 is passed. If it is passed, there will be a difference in drug laws among states. People who indulge in drugs might seize this opportunity to conduct marijuana-related activities in California instead of in their own states. Therefore, drug culture in California will boom. This drug boom is unhealthy for both teenagers and adults. In addition, California does not have policies aiming at misbehavior after using marijuana. Even though, as New York Times suggested, supporters of Proposition 19 claimed that the proposition will decrease drug-related violence, what if the drug-related violence increases instead of decreases? California does not have a policy to handle this possibility yet. So if this happens, the problem will be at large. Finally, there will be a disconnection between our moral understanding and legal understanding on marijuana. For a long time, we are not recommended to use marijuana or other drugs because they damage our brains and cause social instabilities. However, if the law tolerates marijuana and the government regards it as a means to increase revenue, we will have to reconsider marijuana's role in our lives.

Nevada Debate: Harry Reid v.s. Sharron Angle

Democratic senator Harry Reid and Republican Sharron Angle debated on Thursday evening for a Nevada Senate seat. They debated on immigration laws, health care reform, Bush and Obama's presidencies, unemployment, supreme court, Don't Ask Don't Tell, social security system, Yucca Mountain, Education, and Iraq.

I think Reid performed better than Angle in this debate, because he could provide detailed data, he could recognize Angle's lapses, and he defended his positions by providing evidences. However, I do not see Angle's performance as competitive, because she repeated her sentences too much, she provided false evidences, and she used personal attack.

I think Angle's personal attack was immature and vulgar. First, She pointed out that she is from the middle-class while Reid lives in Ritz Carlton. Such a claim assumes that voters oppose Reid merely because he is rich. However, it does not say anything about Reid's ability of being a senator. Also, Angle's claim might lead people hate the rich. This point is contradictory to John Zogby's point in his lecture at Hamilton College. Zogby pointed out that American people do not hate the rich, but they only have problems with people who are rich but do not do anything. Apparently, Reid is trying to contribute to the public instead of doing nothing. Therefore, I do not think Angle could attract voters by pointing out Reid is rich. Second, Angle implied that Reid made a fortune by being a senator. This claim excluded all the others legitimate ways making a politician wealthy.

Besides using personal attacks, Angle gave a weak performance for the following reasons. First, she kept criticizing Obama care and advocated that we should "get the government out", but she did not point out her interpretation toward this health care reform. Therefore, we could possibly think that her interpretation of Obama care could be wrong. Second, she identifies herself as constitutional, while Reid as unconstitutional. However, she only mentioned about the Tenth Amendment slightly, she failed to provide evidences supporting that the Democratic Party/ Obama administration is violating the Constitution. Therefore, her claim that Reid's side is unconstitutional does not hold. Third, she emphasized that we should create a free market for private sector so that business could compete with each other and create jobs. But her suggestion of keeping the government out violates the idea of check-and-balance. Check-and-balance system conveys an idea that no one branch should have excessive power. However, according to Angle's view, we could suppose that free market will seize all the power, even the power of our government. Fourth, Angle provided wrong facts for over three times. I think, if she did not know or was not sure about an evidence, she should have been very honest in front of the camera, and no one will blame her. However, she appeared to be ignorant to reinforce her stance by using false facts after Reid directly pointed out that her data/ evidences were untrue but she could not defend herself.

A conventional interpretation about Tea Party is that it is radical. In one of our reading assignments, we learned that radical is anything about "root", that is, the most fundamental idea of an issue. However, in this debate, Tea Party's representative Sharron Angle seemed to be circuitous. She frequently repeated herself without explaining why her solutions are fundamentally important.

Dino Rossi holds key to Senate takeover hopes

While the Washington Senate race is still competitive, the possibility that he would end up being the hinge for a Republican takeover of the Senate still seems like a longshot. The article says that the Republicans would need to win in Illinois, West Virginia, Colorado and Nevada. If these are basically fifty-fifty scenarios in all four of those races that means that there is a 1/16 chance of a Republican winning in all of those races. It should also be mentioned that Governor Manchin and Alexi Gianoullias have polled ever so slightly ahead of their opponents. Even if the Republicans do manage to win all four of these seat and knock off Russ Feingold (who I personally believe many are underestimating at this point) and Joe Sestak (who still has a chance to beat Patrick Toomey) Patti Murray is still polling way ahead of Dino Rossi leading me to believe a Senate takeover for Republicans most likely won't happen.

Judge Issues Injunction Effectively Ending 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell'

At Claremont Institute, Christine O'Donnell Was Taught ABCs of Homophobia

Tasing Rick Sanchez: Jon Stewart’s Jokes and CNN’s Double Standards

Whack a mole

Journalism and the New Media

G.O.P. Widens Targets for Picking Up House Seats

In light of our reading on predictions for the upcoming elections, I thought this was interesting!

Government Seizes Newborn Baby Over Political Beliefs Of Parents

A newborn baby was ripped from its mother’s arms by officials from the New Hampshire Division of Family Child Services accompanied by police after authorities cited the parents’ association with the Oath Keepers organization as one of the primary reasons for the snatch, heralding a shocking new level of persecution where Americans’ political beliefs are now being used by the state to kidnap children.

California Changes Election Process

The nation's most populous state's movement of changing the election process is changing one of the fundamental aspects of American politics. California has voted to replace traditional party primaries with wide-open elections; the state's top two candidates will face off in a general election. The effects of this decision have been under debate. Proponents claim that a general election is more democratic because parties will lose their dominance forcing voters to pay more attention to the electoral process. Opponents criticize that it will give candidates who have the most money an unfair advantage. It will be interesting to see how this plays out and if other states will jump on California's bandwagon.

Should we be tolerant when voting?

David Gregory questioned Alexi Giannoulias and Mark Steven's personal integrity. They are representatives of the Democratic Party and Republican Party running for the Illinois Senate seat.

To respond, Mr. Kirk said that "I was careless, and I learned a very painful and humbling lesson". Is our society tolerant enough to believe that they could have a fresh start? Analogously, President Obama has once been depraved during his college years. We never regarded it as a problem related to personal integrity during the 2008 Election. Where did our confidence and trust come from? Was it because we were too eager for a change? Or was it because we lost so much confidence in the Republican Party in 2008? Would it be unfair for them because other political runners might have an even worse records at some points of their lives? However, if we pay much attention to their integrity by investigating their pasts, will we waste/use even more resource for political elections?

Branding liberalism/progressivism

New push to ban Hill insider trading

Obama Touts Jobs in Infrastructure Push

Good idea?

Races to watch

The Senate politics of Cap and Trade

Paladino Attacks Gays in Brooklyn Speech

This article describes Paladino's attack on gays and lesbians that took place at Congregation Shaarei Chaim yesterday. Paladino's shockingly stated, "I just think my children and your children would be much better off and much more successful getting married and raising a family, and I don’t want them brainwashed into thinking that homosexuality is an equally valid and successful option — it isn’t." There is no way the media could have taken this quote out of context. The article goes on to say that the majority of New Yorkers agree with him (based on polling). I find this is very hard to believe being a New Yorker myself. I guess we will have to wait until Election Day to see if Paladino's pollsters were right.

Republicans Expected to Make Gains in Races for Governor

Local Races Heat Up

History Favors Republicans

Climate Change Discussion Ends without "Breakthrough"

It is unfortunate that discussion concerning global climate change culminated in finger pointing rather then advancements in the effort to reduce emissions. Pressing environmental issues require multilateral involvement and cooperation more then most problems facing our international community. It’s a shame that leading superpowers like China and the US aren’t able to overcome differences in policies to achieve the ultimate mutual goal of a healthier globe.

Images Of N.Y. Islamic Center Meant To 'Educate'

There will be an Islamic cultural center near the Ground Zero mosque. Since it is highly controversial, this project's main developer, Sharif El-Gamal was invited by NPR to talk on Saturday.

El-Gamal defended the project by claiming that the major purpose of it is to create a better community and to let people better understand the Islamic culture. I believe his intention is good; however, I found problems in two of his answers.

One of El-Gamal's answer was off-topic and presupposed a wrong relation between accepting forerign money and the purpose of the project. El-Gamal is busy rasing fund, but he was asked about accepting foreign money for some of the funding. He relied that "we are not going to take any money from countries or states or organizations that have un-AMerican values. We are, God willing, going to establish a model going forward for community centers". El-Gamal presupposed that accepting foreign money and building a better community are exclusive to each other, but, infact, they are not. El-Gamal actually did not answer the question at all.

Another problematic sentence is that "if we don't exercise our rights then you start losing your rights". Exercising our rights and losing our rights are not exclusive to each other. Often times, we can still preserve our rights even if we do not practice it.

It's OK to run against Obama

These days, average American citizens have grown tired of how the government deals with major issues. It is important to note that most of these people will consider voting against the incumbent in order to express their dissatisfaction with the current administration. This video interview with Representative Chris van Hollen shows the tactic that some House Democrats are employing in order to compete with this year's anti-incumbent sentiments. Some incumbents have recently been running ads that they to separate themselves from President Obama and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. They believe that the way to overcome possible takeover of Republicans is admitting that their party as a whole is not perfect and showing that they do not necessarily agree with some policies that have gone through Congress.

Washington Senate Race

Being from the great state of washington, this Senate race is rather important to me. Dino Rossi the republican candidate seems to be gaining some ground on current Senator Patty Murray (D-Wash). The race for the senate in the evergreen state will be an important one and one to take note of for our election prediction.

Facebook Politicians Are Not Your Friends

How Far is Too Far?

I first heard of the Westboro Baptist Church about two years ago. A neighboring high school was putting on a production of the Laramie Project, a play about a gay man’s murder. The Church decided to protest outside the school on Saturday night. However the community came together to stand against them.
The Westboro Baptist Church is now awaiting a Supreme Court decision. The group was used after demonstrating at a Marine’s funeral. They had a legal right to be there and a constitutional right to say whatever they wanted. But does the grieving father have a right to mourn in peace? With rights come responsibilities. Human decency should be one of these responsibilities. We all have the right to share our opinion but we should think about when and how we do it.

The Breakdown: How Can the Democrats Close the Enthusiasm Gap?

Critics ascribed the name "enthusiasm gap" to the tendency incumbent parties have to lose seats during the midterm elections. This article suggest that unlike the 2008 elections, the Democrats (obviously) aren't doing nearly as well as the Republicans in terms of rallying supporters and working to increase voter turnout. In addition, the current state of economy and the nation as a hole isn't working in favor of the Democrats. As a result, Democrats could be likely to lose more seats than we usually observe in midterm elections. Roughly a month before the elections, the democrats' dominant strategy is to contain the "enthusiasm gap" in order maximize their chances of gaining some of the open seats in this elections and decrease the loses they could (will) suffer.
Given the fact that the incumbent parties usually win 90-95% of their seats back, the only efficacious things the democrats can do as this article points out is to minimize the "enthusiasm gap" in the hopes to maximize their chances of winning some open seats.

Voting Test Falls Victim to Hackers

This article addresses the issue of online vote casting and its potential hazards. Recently, Washington, D.C. tested an online voting program, and invited hackers to manipulate the system. Computer science students from The University of Michigan were able to successfully hack their way into the program, showing the deficiencies of the system. If computer scientists were able to develop a safer voting system, online voting would be an effective way to increase voter turnout. Americans spend a great deal of time on the Internet nowadays, and online voting would help increase voter turnout. An efficient system would invalidate excuses such as “I didn’t have time to vote” or “The election site was too crowded”; however, until safer mechanisms for online voting are developed, the polls will continue to be the primary institution in American elections.

Democrats Surging...In 1994?

This article addresses the unpredictability of the upcoming midterm elections. Chait compares the circumstances seen in the 1994 midterm elections during the Clinton presidency with the current situation with the Obama administration. Although many have been predicting huge losses for the Democratic party, Chait provides some arguments that suggest the losses will not be as large as they previously believed.

Judge Rules Health Law Is Constitutional

In the first court case challenging the new health care laws, a federal judge in Michigan dismissed 15 challenges yesterday, becoming the first to rule the laws constitutional. According to the article, there are currently two additional cases concerning the health care laws headed to court. If the judges in the next two cases reach the same decision as the Michigan judge, it is likely at least one of these cases will be appealed. Eventually, the health care debate will wind up in the Supreme Court for a definitive decision.

Cost's new assessment of election

Campaign Cash: Who's Spending Where in 2010

Deportations From U.S. Hit a Record High

There is an increase of more than 81.000 deportations of criminals over the final year of Gorge W. Bush's presidency (New York Times).

I think this phenomenon is interesting because people have been debating about Arizona's SB 1070 for a long time, but the immigrant criminals are becoming more rampant. There has been dissidents of Arizona SB 1070 saying that it may increase racism and division against Latinos. However, even if we are now implementing the Arizona's bill, immigrants are still bold.

Make It Legal

The Sweep: What Went Wrong for Democrats

This article is essentially a synopsis of the policies and reforms that Obama has enacted (or attempted to) that has upset American Voters today.

How much do euthusiasm and faith worth?

President Obama has been actively promoting votes for the Democratic Party over these several weeks. In his speeches, he promoted much enthusiasm. However, one of the most important features of media - reporting negative news - makes us feel that we have so many "problems". Will Obama's pace be fast enough to counteract the effect of news?

Unemployed people will need to find temporary jobs for retailers during holidays in order to carry them through holidays; stores will need to carry out discounts in order to promote sales during Halloween; no more federal financial support for stem cell researches, several of the largest banks are facing foreclosure problems, etc. The problem is that these are not abstract economic statistics, but very real daily life issues. Imagine how the people would feel when they are just thrilled by President Obama's speech then realize that they cannot find jobs, that they cannot sell the goods at their store, that their stem cell research will possibly stop because they lack financial support, and that they get a flawed bank paperwork.

Could their confidence defeat the reality?

Actually the reality is not that bad because there are also positive news happening everyday; however, they are not favor by the news. Therefore, there media helps increase a national fear or dissatisfaction toward the government. Will President Obama's effort win over American people?

Clean and Open American Elections

To frack or not to frack?

Could NY and PA be the Saudi Arabia of natural gas? Are environmental risks too great? What would Mr. Hayward say? PS. If you google the title of the story, the whole thing will appear.

House chairmen in jeopardy

It is indeed telling that many of the most powerful Democratic caucus members are in possible danger of losing their seats and how this relates to the 2010 midterm elections. Although I agree with the author that the chairmen will most likely all keep their seats it highlights a sort of reversal of fortunes that we saw in 2008. In the days leading up to the 2008 election many commentators mentioned that in this election due to the 50 state strategy of Howard Dean the Democrats were competitive in even the most sacred of Republican bastions. Today the Republicans seem to be on the opposite side of the playing field now, or the end zone if you will. If even these men are up for a possible loss it shows how far the Democrats have fallen in popularity.

Still more on turnout

Will a restive liberal base turn out?

Is ad blowing smoke about Blunt's help for Phillip Morris?

The man GOP most hates

Even more on turnout

More on turnout

Hillary for VEEP?

Good idea?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703298504575534192155591822.html?mod=WSJ_WSJ_US_News_5

The White House is making a national statement about environmental activism through a local installation of Solar Panels on the White House roof. Steve Hayward believes that local environmental organizations produce more efficient environmental progress than national organizations. "Putting solar on the roof of the nation's most important home is a powerful symbol" calling all Americans to realize that they can create energy through direct and personal means.

Response to Steven Hayward

In his lecture “Is Sustainable Development Sustainable” Steven Hayward critiqued the modern environmental movement’s failure to consider important economic tradeoffs and the alarmist nature of environmental advocacy groups. Yet Hayward’s optimistic attitude toward environmental issues such as climate change, population growth, and the depletion of non-renewable resources lacks scientific foundation.

Hayward accuses the environmental movement of failing to recognize crucial tradeoffs between ostensibly “environmentally friendly” goods and “other” goods. In presenting his facts, however, Hayward incorrectly attributes the counterfact to the environmentalism movement, thus unfairly portraying environmental groups as “alarmists”. Using oil to illustrate his point, Hayward shows the “environmentally friendly” alternative, ethanol, leads to equally serious environmental hazards. In doing so, he implies that modern environmentalism encourages substituting ethanol for crude oil. In truth, most environmentalists are against ethanol for the same reasons that Hayward provided: Nitrate runoff in the Mississippi, the dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico, and excessive use of land to grow corn. Similarly, Hayward begins his lecture by declaring the little known truth that air pollution is declining, implying that environmental advocacy groups would attest to the contrary. Environmentalists are aware that air pollution is declining; they just choose not to emphasize this small, yet significant success in order to focus on areas in desperate need of improvement.

By misrepresenting the knowledge and perspectives of environmentalism, Hayward portrays environmentalists as alarmists. Yet the direction that environmental economists have taken in the past few decades is one of carefully weighing costs and benefits. The assertion that modern environmentalism lacks a consideration of tradeoffs is simply untrue. Hayward points out the opportunity costs of leaving oil in the ground for future generations, implying that advocates of sustainability are blind to such implicit costs. But he fails to recognize that environmental economists are constantly analyzing the same set of tradeoffs in policy-making and analysis. These eco-economists simply intend to wean society off of non-renewable energy before it is too late. They understand that if we do not begin the process of researching and developing new, sustainable energy sources today, then future generations will suffer the consequences. Yet costs remain at the very forefront of environmental economist’s minds as they search for sustainable alternatives that are also economically practical. Perhaps the most important cost to be considered, which Hayward neglects to address, is the environmental cost of human activities. While subsidizing environmental research or implementing pollution taxes may seem costly to society, the net effect of these efforts is good when the long-term costs to society are properly considered.

Although Hayward argues that environmentalists overemphasize climate change, his skeptical view simply lacks scientific foundation. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a non-partisan scientific body composed of many of the best scientists in the world has declared in their consensus statement that not only is the planet getting hotter (this is not a point of debate), but humans are contributing to such warming in a major way. Additionally, the National Academy of Scientists has also affirmed that human activities contribute significantly to global warming. While there is surely some degree of uncertainty regarding the magnitude of global warming’s impacts, there is widespread consensus among leading climatologists that even an increase of just two degrees Celsius will have colossal impacts on the environment. Scientists are already witnessing these impacts firsthand as animals are being driven out of their natural habitats, glaciers are melting, and sea levels are rising. These are only a few of the many consequences of global climate change that simply cannot be contested. Skepticism surrounding this issue is mostly found in politically-minded publications often funded by self interested oil companies.

Although Hayward claims environmentalists have overestimated the magnitude of population growth, citing the forecasted decline in population growth in about forty years, he neglects to address the colossal impacts of population growth in the meantime. Leading demographers have forecasted what they call a “demographic transition”, which predicts that the world population will flatten in the next 50-60 years. In the meantime, the world will experience a 30% increase in population, leveling around 9-10 billion. Although the fact that population will not increase indefinitely, the 30% increase our planet will experience in the meantime is grounds for concern. Poverty, famine, and environmental impacts are just a few of the significant ramifications of such an increase.

Target Point: how to get votes

This is the company that Professor Eismeier was talking about during our class (the 9am section). They pinpoint those voters who are sympathetic the a candidate's ideas but would not normally vote or those voters who would be easily swung to the opposite party. By finding the voters who could be easily persuaded to vote for a certain candidate they help win thousands of votes for a campaign. Even only a decade ago politicians never would have dreamed about looking at their campaigns in such a formulated light.

The worst public service announcement ever produced?

10:10, a climate change environmental group in UK, produced this video and then withdrew it after public uproar. Rated R: Not for those who don't like the sight of blood.

GOP’s DioGuardi Airs First Ad in N.Y. Senate Race

In Democratic State, GOP Ties Ascent to Ex-NBA Player Vying for Governor

This article sheds light on the House race in Oregon's 5th district and also the race for governor. The 5th district is the GOP's only real shot at securing a seat from Oregon, a predominately blue state. Also, I thought this might help for our election prediction project.

States: The Next Financial Crisis?

Response to Steve Hayward Lecture

While I found some of his statistics encouraging and refreshingly optimistic, Mr. Hayward's inability to effectively answer questions or clearly defend many of his arguments was concerning. It seemed as though he skirted around some issues and when given opportunities to defend his "green conservative" stance he went off on irrelevant tangents. I began wondering whether this idea of green conservatism is simply a way for conservatives to appeal more to the left while still maintaining party objectives.

Will Democrats Retain Control of the Congress?

Now that many electoral contests have stabilized and become more competitive, many political pundits are more skeptical of massive Republican gains in Congress. This article addresses the fact that many elections that previously favored one candidate are now in a deadheat. This is partly a result of increased Democratic spending on close campaigns around the country and what I believe is a shift in focus from the unpopularity of the Obama administration towards more local and candidate-centric issues in many tight elections. Incumbents have a much greater chance of being re-elected, partly as a result of name recognition and greater sums of money to spend on campaigning. This incumbent advantage might lead to a greater likelihood that Democrats will be able to retain more seats in Congress thus securing their majority in Congress for at least another two years.

Supreme Court Offers Hot Issues and Future Hints

A look at some of the hot-button issues the Supreme Court will be facing in the upcoming year.

Cost Reading (last week)

I was just looking over the Cost article for last week and came to a different conclusion then when I originally read it. I think the majority of class viewed Cost’s argument for “party proposals from the middle” more tenable then Reich’s idea for extending the limits of politics. In reading the article again however, I kept thinking how Costs suggestions would be unproductive if put into effect. Costs believes that, “Obama lacks the broad appeal to guide the House’s liberal proposal through the Senate,” which consequently leads to “compromise bills” that no one likes. Costs proposes that Obama “disarm his opponents” by moving towards more moderate, middle of the spectrum politics. Additionally, Cost makes the point that Obama “…could have wooed the moderate flank of the Republican Party, marginalized the conservatives, and alleviated the concern of those gettable voters in the South and Midwest.” Cost argues that Obama policies get too watered down due to compromise, yet he makes the suggestion to make a more drastic compromise by shifting his entire liberal agenda to gain support. It seems to me that if Obama changes tack towards “policy built up from the center” he will still be caught between appeasing the moderates/republicans and democrats, only now the liberals (who were the majority voters) are upset with him too. I understand that to gain support Costs ideas for Obama are feasible, however now that he is in office, Obama would be more successful changing “…politics to extend those limits and thereby more assuredly achieve goals” (Reich suggestion).

Legislators Are Among 7 Arrested in Alabama

"Federal agents swept across Alabama on Monday arresting state legislators, lobbyists and powerful businessmen in a wide-ranging investigation into bribery and corruption charges." (New York Times)

Special interest groups are an important component of American politics. They have professional knowledge about different political issues, so they are necessary in problem solving. However, their expanding size and number have contributed to a corrupted senate. Senators and legislators know their delicate relationship with lobbyists and they know the lobbyists' expectations. Admittedly, in these lobbyists' expectations, there are also senators and legislators' expectations: they hope they could live a secure life not only currently but also after they retire. Benefit and power are two important themes of the relationship between legislators, senators, lobbyists, and businessmen. As a result, many of the senators and legislators forget their original intention of serving the people when they first take office.

On the eve of the 2010 Election, Federal agents' action in Alabama undoubtedly rang the alarm on congressmen and senators nationwide.

Wiretapping the Internet

Third Party Rising

Three Scenarios for 2010 Election

You will find this useful for your election project.

Obama appoints new chief of staff

Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel recently announced that he was retiring in order to run for Mayor of Chicago. This has left Obama with the task of finding a new Chief of Staff. It will be interesting to see how this change will creates a different dynamic in Washington.

With election losses certain, Democrats discuss the way forward

This article relates to the homework due tomorrow. Tom Cohen discuses the midterm elections taking place in November. It is clear after reading the article that both the democrats and republican believe that the democrats will keep the majority in the Senate but there is no clear answer as to which party will win the House. It will be interesting to see what happens as we move closer to election day.

More States Allowing Guns in Bars and Restaurants

Tennessee passed a new law that allows gun holders to carry their loaded guns into bars and restaurants. Different opinions arose. Supporters think that their rights are expanded, while opponents concern that this law might increase potential dangers. State representative Curry Todd claimed that the purpose of this law is to allow people to defend their personal safety.

I think this new law is the most worrying for workers of the restaurants and bars. Because alcohol intoxication are common after people drink. Once they are drunk, especially those who are experiencing downturns, they could be irrational unconsciously. Therefore, it is dangerous for them to possess loaded guns. Workers of the restaurants and bars are working in a dangerous and risky environment.

This law is opposed to President Obama's intention on gun control. President Obama has always been in favor of expanding gun control laws. Following Virginia, Arizona, and Wyoming, Tennessee absolutely put itself on the spot encouraging gun right advocates.

Midterm Outlook: Purely Partisan

Should Republicans expect MASSIVE gains in the house + Senate? This article describes some of the arguments for small gains and likely a majority in the house for republicans, but not for huge gains for the Republican Party. One prediction was that republicans would just win back historically republican seats that were taken in 06.

The Very Useful Idiocy of Christine O'Donnell

This Op-Ed piece discusses the effects of Christine O'Donnell's win in the primary and what this could mean for the Tea Party. It also sheds light on the fact that nowadays, someone with fabricated credentials can still get elected, displaying the power of good campaigning and riding on the coattails of a new political movement.

U.S. Issues a Terrorism Alert for Travel in Europe

This article discusses current terror alerts in Britain, France and Germany. Recent Al Qaeda stirrings have prompted the United States to issue an alert to any Americans traveling to or living in Europe. Although specifics regarding the potential terrorist plots are unknown, the State Department has urged Americans to exercise caution in public transportation systems and tourist venues. The article also indicates that the United States has been continuing to pursue its drone missile campaign in Pakistan, in an effort to foil any Al Qaeda efforts, and weaken possible terrorist strongholds. The article caused me to consider the following: how many terrorist plots, of which the American public has no knowledge, are averted on a daily basis. The CIA keeps this information confidential for valid reasons. Public knowledge of existing terrorist plots would prove to be disconcerting to citizens, and would interfere with governmental efforts to diffuse potential attacks. Nevertheless, it is interesting to consider how many threats that the Department of Homeland Security faces on a day-to-day basis. I suppose that Americans lead a more comfortable life, void of constant fear, as a result of this secrecy.

GOP candidates get an edge with out-of-state cash

Nurses Union Plans Ad Against Angle

This article discusses how the largest union of registered nurses in the country plans to spend $200,000 on attack ads against Sharron Angle, the Republican challenger for Senate in Nevada. Angle is running against Democrat Harry Reid, who is currently the Senate majority leader. Backed by the Tea Party, people fear that Angle is far too radical and extremist with her agenda. The article states that she seeks to privatize both Medicare and Social Security, as well as eliminating the Department of Education. National Nurses United also supports other Democratic candidates around the region, specifically in California where they have demonstrated against the Republican candidate, Meg Whitman. This Senate race in Nevada is being considered as one of the most important contests nationally.

Following the Money Behind Mystery Attack Ads

The Supreme Court's new ruling, that companies are restricted to spend too much money on political ads, created a loophole that allows groups, such as Americans for New Leadership, to use ads without telling "who they are and how they are funded". Democrat DeFazio has become a victim of this loophole.

I think it very interesting how acute people could be. When policies try to regulate more, we claim that we are losing freedom and privacy. For example, a number of people are unhappy about the new potential supervision on text messages, emails, and online chatting in order to detect possible terrorists. However, when policies allow us a little more personal space, we try to exploit it in an immoral but legal way. How could we convince others that we can regulate ourselves so that we deserve more freedom and less restriction?

Glimmer of hope for Dems?

Trench warfare or open field politics?

Interesting essay relevant to our class discussions and to research paper about 2010 election.

Is Sustainable Development Sustainable?

This article is a good preview of the argument Mr. Hayward will make on Monday evening.

Speaking of BP....

Jelly beans.......

were Ronald Reagan's favorite snack. Sunday at 7:30, the AHI Undergraduate Fellows are sponsoring Ronald Reagan Night. We will watch a few of his most important speeches and then discuss his political legacy. A good time-- and lots of jelly beans-- will be had by all. Another good reason to attend is the opportunity to learn more about the Alexander Hamilton Institute and to tour its beautiful building on the green in Clinton. The building was once the Alexander Hamilton Inn, a favorite haunt of Hamilton students for generations. Now students are once again flocking to the AHI. The AHI Undergraduate Fellows, now more than sixty in number, is an intellectually diverse, non-partisan group (for the second straight year the President of Hamilton Dems and Hamilton GOP are both Fellows, who share the AHI's interest in the study of freedom, capitalism, and representative government. AHI is an independent non-profit organization. For more information about becoming a Fellow, contact me. If you need a ride or can give a ride, come to KJ Circle at 7:15.